Barack Obama, Alchemist In Chief

November 7, 2011

Individuals who have convinced sufficient Americans to vote for them to be President usually have carried adequate-to-outstanding academic credentials.  President Obama is no exception, having a Bachelor’s degree, plus a Juris Doctor’s degree (from Harvard, no less).  But a great many of us are wishing he had taken a few science, math or engineering courses—courses where the correct answers are not determined by ideology, opinion polls or judicial interpretation.  President Obama’s technology illiteracy is not just a matter of embarrassment; the cost to all of us is unsustainable.

We humans, like a lot of other animals, learn through experience.  As those experiences have been recorded for posterity, each new generation of researchers, as the saying goes, stands on the shoulders of those who came before.  In ancient times, long before the seeds of modern science were planted, alchemy was accepted as a legitimate scientific pursuit.  The best-known purpose of alchemy was its goal of converting base metals such as lead or tin into noble metals such as gold and silver.  That goal eluded its searchers for millennia, but it was thought to be possible, awaiting only a “right stuff” thinker who could accomplish what had proved impossible for so long.

Today the average person thinks of alchemy as a play toy of the incorrigible ignorant.  Although essentially true, that’s not a totally fair assessment, since alchemy was one of the seeds that lead toward modern science.  One alchemy-like problem we see today is the achievement of controlled nuclear fusion, like the controlled fission used in nuclear power plants.  But, unlike the efforts of those early alchemists, research that some day might lead to controlled fusion (the holy grail of energy sources) is being conducted by the world’s top scientists with supercolliders, supercomputers, and all of our modern research tools.

President Obama does not seem to understand that the alchemy of the middle ages cannot be made to work, in spite of his rhetoric and his desires.  It appears that his ingrained ideology and ignorance of (or contempt for) physics, mathematics and engineering makes him an easy target for confidence men.  It is painfully evident that our President believes that almost instantaneous elimination of fossil fuels is achievable via political fiat.  The President is not alone in his beliefs; many in his administration have the same fuzzy beliefs and the same contempt for those “little people” of science who can’t seem to understand what is wanted of them.

So we see billions and billions of our taxpayer dollars being donated for seed money in economically questionable renewable energy initiatives.  A recent winner in our energy folly lottery is the late lamented Solyndra company that filed for bankruptcy in early September.  At this point there is no evidence of any wrongdoing on the part of Solyndra, aside from poor management and possible lack of due diligence.

Poor decision-making and overconfidence are seen from time to time in totally private initiatives, those with no taxpayer money at risk and no political favor rewards (see Diogenes and Technology Breakthroughs).  Such examples just remind us that there is risk inherent in all business ventures.  Venture capitalists understand risk management very well, but still they continue to finance new startups regularly.  However, when the venture capital is taxpayer money (which belongs to no one) due diligence has, or should have, a completely different definition.

The use of tax monies to finance business startups is generally regarded as inappropriate, but there may be room for debate on that subject.  However, no debate should be required about risk management where public moneys are involved.  Most of us believe that investing taxpayers’ money in the finest, invisible, fabric from which to make the President’s new suit should be held up to considerably more scrutiny than its counterpart private investment.

But worse than questionable investments of our money is the President’s belief that if he can starve us of electricity from coal-fired plants, we will be forced to turn to wind or solar.  Unfortunately, our President doesn’t understand or believe that there is no replacement in sight for the electricity currently derived from coal.  Or perhaps he thinks we won’t mind the absence of power at night, when solar cells produce nothing and wind turbines produce little.

We voters are a little late in vetting our President’s technology awareness and competence (and also vetting his candidates for appointment to positions related to technology).  Our recourse at this point is to do our best to make sure that potential future Presidents do not have significant technology blind spots or contempt for technologists.  It would help if we could demand more technology familiarity from the media; technology-challenged reporters and anchors seem to be the norm.

My suggestion is to support candidates for President only if they are on a technology level of George Washington or better (or Thomas Jefferson, or Benjamin Franklin, or…).


Diogenes and Technology Breakthroughs

February 7, 2010

Tradition says that Diogenes walked the streets of Athens with a lantern, “looking for an honest man”.   We don’t know if Diogenes ever discovered a man he considered “honest”.  But if the political world of his time resembled that of the United States today, it’s safe to say it would have taken a while.

In our current political times Diogenes would also have needed a very bright light and unlimited years to find the technology breakthroughs that a number of our politicians imply will occur imminently.  For example, according to these politicians a battery technology breakthrough is very close, one that will enable affordable electric vehicles with the power and range of today’s cars and trucks (and railroad engines and airliners?).  It is to wonder if the new batteries will also be so capable and so cheap that they can store sufficient energy to make up for those nighttime hours when solar electric generators produce zero watts and wind generators produce almost none.

However, I long ago legitimately acquired a skepticism about “imminent technology breakthroughs” .  For the major part of my career in information technology my job was to seek out and stay abreast of potential technology advancements that might affect my company’s competitiveness.  A part of that effort involved regular visits to the various research and development labs of computer and communications technology leaders.

In many cases our company was a long-standing customer (or potential valuable customer) of these technology giants.  So there was always an underlying, but usually very subtle, sales and marketing appeal which we took in stride.  But in return for our access to these scarce and valuable technology researchers (I met at least five Nobel Laureates in those years), we provided a first-hand assessment of the technology improvements which we thought would most help our company—accurate and targeted market research which the manufacturer could not obtain any other way.

While occasional technology reviews included pure research areas, the majority focused on applied research projects.  Pure research tidbits usually involved some interesting phenomenon of physics,  recently discovered by the research scientists, which might have interesting product possibilities some day.  Applied research projects which were demonstrated and described, however, represented potential near-term products we might readily use.

Across those years of trying to stay abreast of practical state-of-the-art technology, there were quite a number of  “imminent technology breakthroughs” implied or hinted at by our hosts.  But eventually we learned not to hold our breath for very long.  In fact, the single most important technology advance of all those years was in a somewhat obscure area of computer manufacturing—not particularly sexy or intriguing to the average person.

It should be pointed out that computers and communications, and especially their underlying solid state electronics technology, are not the only areas where imminent technology breakthrough seductions occur.  The airline I worked for paid dearly for at least two “breakthrough” airliners which never met their predicted performance levels (anybody remember the Convair 990 or the BAC 111?).  The oil company I worked for lost millions and millions when it decided that a chemical process technology was sufficiently close that it could skip a pilot plant trial, and go directly to full-scale production.  The successor to that oil company had a division that was the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic solar cells; the company invested untold millions in anticipation of an imminent breakthrough which would make solar cells so cheap they could be used as the roofing materials for homes and businesses.

Nowadays I am hard-pressed to take the politicians too seriously when they tell us that it will only take a few trillion or so in government “investments” to realize quick breakthrough results from “green” energy technologies.  I also can’t forget our government’s bungling of the Super Collider particle accelerator project about twenty years ago.  It was at that time the leading edge of particle research in physics, an effort that might lead the way toward  the holy grail of energy:  controlled nuclear fusion.  But after 12 to 15 billion dollars had been expended in the construction of this facility the project was scrapped.  The cause of the sudden termination was an essentially intra-party squabble between Congress and the President, likely over distribution of  pork between certain states.  Recently the European Union brought online a similar type of accelerator, the Large  Hadron Collider, with about a third of the power planned for the now-abandoned Super Collider.

My U. S.  Congressman is a Blue Dog Democrat who takes the “trillion here, trillion there…” seriously, and his approval of boondoggle projects is not likely to be easily bought by the House leadership.  Our two U. S. Senators are also fiscally alert and not likely to be seduced into wasting more of our money.  Even so, I will periodically remind them to continue to look out for our tax money (trying my best not to be condescending or preachy about whatever imminent technology breakthrough is being used as bait for gullible citizens).  I recommend you also diplomatically nag your Congressman and Senators from time to time.


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